ALP 8.7% vs ON
Incumbent MP
Jim Madden, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Ipswich West covers the western Ipswich suburbs of North Ipswich, Brassall, Leichhardt, Yamanto and Karalee, as well as rural areas to the west of Ipswich including Pine Mountain, Marburg and Rosewood.
History
Ipswich West has existed since 1960. In that time it has been won by the Labor Party at all but three elections.
The ALP held the seat from 1960 to 1974, when it was lost to the National Party at a landslide election. Labor recovered the seat in 1977.
David Underwood held the seat from 1977 until 1989, when he was replaced by Don Livingstone.
Livingstone held the seat from 1989 until 1998, when he lost to One Nation’s Jack Paff. Paff helped form the new City Country Alliance in 1999, and lost to Livingstone in 2001. Livingstone served two more terms, retiring in 2006.
The ALP’s Wayne Wendt was elected in Ipswich West in 2006 and he won a second term in 2009.
In 2012, Wendt was defeated by LNP candidate Sean Choat. Choat lost in 2015 to Labor candidate Jim Madden. Madden was re-elected in 2017.
Candidates
- Clem Grieger (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
- Raven Wolf (Greens)
- Karakan Karoly Kochardy (Independent)
- Chris Green (Liberal National)
- Gary Duffy (One Nation)
- Anthony Hopkins (Legalise Cannabis)
- Jim Madden (Labor)
Assessment
Ipswich West is a solid Labor seat. One Nation did well to come second but fell a long way short of winning. They would need to do very well to win here.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim Madden | Labor | 13,560 | 47.3 | -0.1 |
| Brad Trussell | One Nation | 8,078 | 28.2 | +19.8 |
| Anna O’Neill | Liberal National | 4,746 | 16.5 | -18.1 |
| Keith Muller | Greens | 2,303 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| Informal | 1,427 | 4.7 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim Madden | Labor | 16,844 | 58.7 | -0.4 |
| Brad Trussell | One Nation | 11,843 | 41.3 | +41.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ipswich West have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
Labor won a solid majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the north-west (61.4%) and the south-east (62.3%) while One Nation won 51% in the west.
The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.9% in the south-east to 17.3% in the west.
| Voter group | LNP prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 16.5 | 61.4 | 10,060 | 35.1 |
| West | 17.3 | 49.0 | 4,520 | 15.8 |
| South-East | 11.9 | 62.3 | 4,210 | 14.7 |
| Pre-poll | 17.9 | 58.8 | 5,438 | 19.0 |
| Other votes | 18.6 | 59.1 | 4,459 | 15.5 |
Election results in Ipswich West at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs One Nation) and LNP primary votes.
As mentioned in Ipswich, this is part of a band of seats in south & south-west of Brisbane where the LNP vote fell and ONP came second. Seats such as this, Jordan, Bundamba (By-election 2020) and Logan. In fact the band extends on the other side with LNP seats of Scenic Rim and Lockyer. I can understand the latter two, but I was always confounded by the high ONP in those Labor seats. Nevertheless, I had this pegged as about the same margin as last time ALP vs ONP, with Gary Duffy a good choice in candidate, this should buck the ONP vote going down from the 2017 peak. LNP not choosing a candidate this late shows there are some seats the LNP rather give a hope to someone else to take the seat when they can’t from the ALP.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
Gary Duffy is a serial Mayoral/Councillor candidate
To decide we need to look at the track record of people standing. There are three people nobody has ever heard of: Clem Grieger (Civil Liberties & Motorists), Anthony Hopkins (Legalise Cannabis), Raven Wolf (Greens). Two of these parties nobody really knows. Greens will side with the ALP, which are pushing dumps and incinerators. As usual a bit of a contradiction. Where were the greens when the dumps and an incinerator were first talked of? Not seen, only coming out strong now weeks before an election. Then we have the ALP Candidate who tells us the Mt Cosby overpass is shovel ready when there is no funding. The roads are shocking in the country area, we have the inland rail coming destroying our properties and we have a landfill in the Ebenezer area. What is Jim Madden doing about that, what is he doing in general? In all the years he is in we have not really seen him do anything. I could not name one thing were he actually stood up for his constituents. Then we have Gary Duffy, who has fought the corruption, is actively fighting the landfills in court, is attending Inland rail meetings and standing up for Deeping Creek, is fighting for our water security and funding for our rural fire service. He is actively out there listening to the constituents and not only just before the election but for a long time now. If you want somebody that is actually adressing the problems in your area and knows the problems then the choice is simple.
Prediction: ALP Retain
Labor retain
Labor retain
ALP retain
Ahahaha garry duffy….. serial candidate… never a truer word spoken.. perhaps he and former serial candidate patricia peterson should form a new party… serial candidates of Australia haha duffy loses again